General Resources
CIA World Factbook: Sudan – You can research other countries too.
Legal Agreements
- Egypt and Britain 1929 – Nile Water Agreement
The agreement was decided on the basis that Egypt is more dependent on the Nile than other nations, which enjoy heavy rainfall. The British controlled Egypt at this point and wanted it to have more resources.
- Egypt and Sudan 1959
Egypt was allocated three-quarters of the total water volume (55.5 billion cubic metres) and thereby the ability to construct the Aswan Dam, while Sudan was allocated a quarter of the volume (18.5 billion cubic meters). Other nations strongly criticised the 1929 and 1959 Nile Water agreements but were not strong enough to do anything about it at the time.
- Entebbe Agreement 2011
The Entebbe Agreement allows countries to construct dams and other projects, against the restrictions of the colonial treaties. Currently, the six nations that have signed the agreement are: Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi.
General Points
A. There is not enough work put into getting groundwater – it is too deep and therefore expensive. Uganda, Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia have potential access to groundwater. Ethiopia has easier access, Egypt the most difficult. Ethiopia has more access to aquifers as they have mountains.
B. The Nile River Basin nations (NRB’s), have a combined population of over 450 million people and estimates indicate that over 200 million of them rely directly on the Nile for their food and water security.
C. The Nile River Basin’s population is expected to double in the next twenty-five years.
D. Uganda, Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia have potential access to groundwater. Ethiopia has easier access, Egypt the most difficult.
E. Egypt already receives the lion’s share of Nile waters: more than 55 billion of the around 88 billion cubic meters of water that flow down the river each year. The amount Egypt receives, under the agreements from 1929 and 1959, is unfair according to the other Nile nations and ignore the needs of their own large populations.
Egypt
- Egypt relies on the Nile for 97% of its needs
- A tenth of Egypt’s electricity generation capacity comes from the Aswan Dam alone.
- Egypt’s population is growing at 1.88% per year.
- In 1970, Egypt threatened war over the building of the Fincha Dam in Ethiopia and when Ethiopia tried to secure funding from the World Bank, Egypt and Sudan used the 1902 treaty between Britain and Ethiopia to stop them
- Egypt thought of attacking the Ethiopian Dam (Renaissance) but does not have the ability to do so at the moment (wikileaks). Their military is more concerned with issues in Egypt rather than outside but this could change. The country relies on loans from GCC, the USA and World Bank.
- Alaa al-Zawahiri, a member of the Egyptian National Panel of Experts studying the effects of the Renaissance Dam says that Ethiopia’s construction of a dam able to hold 74 billion cubic meters of water was a catastrophe for his country, which would end up losing 60% of its agricultural land.
- Few nations rely so completely on a single river as much as Egypt does. The Nile provides over 90 per cent of Egypt’s water supply. Around 60 per cent of Egypt’s Nile water originates in Ethiopia from the Blue Nile, one of two main tributaries. With the population expected to double in 50 years, shortages are predicted to become severe even sooner, by 2025.
- One study by a Cairo University agriculture professor estimated Egypt would lose a staggering 51 per cent of its farmland if the fill of the Renaissance Dam is done in three years. A slower, six-year fill would cost Egypt 17 per cent of its cultivated land, the study claimed. Internal government studies estimate that for every reduction of 1 billion cubic meters of water, 200,000 acres of farmland would be lost and livelihoods of 1 million people affected since an average of five people live off each acre, a senior Irrigation Ministry official said.
- Other experts say the impact will be far smaller, even minimal. They say Egypt could suffer no damage at all if it and Ethiopia work together and exchange information, adjusting the rate of filling the reservoir to ensure that Egypt’s own massive reservoir on the Nile, Lake Nasser, stays full enough to meet its needs during the fill
Ethiopia
10. The US$4.7 billion Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) shows Ethiopia’s economic improvement – it is the biggest in Africa, generating 6000 megawatts, x3 current capacity. It will become an exporter of electricity and help improve the economy.
11. Ethiopia Gets 70% of their water via the Blue Nile Basin (BNB) mainly from springs. Accessed up to a depth of 30 metres. Agriculture and industry (especially their construction boom), use a lot of water.
12. “We have taken into account (the dam’s) probable effects on countries like Egypt and Sudan,” Ethiopia’s water, irrigation and electricity minister, Sileshi Bekele, told journalists.
Sudan
13. South Sudan has been involved in civil war for decades. Their economy is poor and it needs to improve quickly. It needs more access to the waters of the Nile as a result.
14. Livestock population of 145 million compared to humans of 45. The country had plans to convert land for agriculture to sell to GCC countries but the civil war prevented this from happening.
Tanzania
15. In 2004, Tanzania planned the construction of the Lake Victoria pipeline, which would have benefited approximately 400,000 of its north-western citizens. Egypt threatened to bomb the construction site, claiming that it needed that water to flow northward into the Aswan Dam. The 1929 agreement restricted Tanzania from blocking the Nile’s waters without British permission.
Uganda
16. Uganda has 3.1% population growth, the highest of all the Nile River Basin countries.
17. Uganda’s president, Yoweri Musevini, for one, has little time for the Egyptian predicament: “Egypt cannot continue to hurt black Africa and the countries of the tropics of Africa”, no doubt mindful of old treaties which excluded the likes of Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania – not to mention his own country – from enjoying the benefit of the Nile’s waters which also originate on their lands.
Solutions and Systems
Reduce Flow
Water flow from Ethiopia to Egypt may be reduced by 25% for three years or more? This will force Egypt to make better use of its existing water and find alternatives.
Existing Agreement
In a 2015 Declaration of Principles agreement, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan agreed to contract an independent study of the dam’s impact and abide by it as they agreed on a plan for filling the reservoir and operating the dam. But the deadline to complete the study has passed, and it has hardly begun, held up by differences over information sharing and transparency despite multiple rounds of negotiations among the three.
New Agreement?
Organise a conference to agree a new deal for the Nile. Possibly a third party could be included to arbitrate.
Egypt, Ethiopia vow to find solution for Nile river dispute
Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan hope to break Nile dam talks deadlock in one month
Ethiopia becomes more powerful
Salman Salman, a Sudanese water expert, said Egypt has long had an attitude of “this is our river and no one can touch it.”Now, he said, “Egypt is no longer the dominant force along the Nile. Ethiopia is replacing it.” They ignore what other countries say and do and act independently.
Find alternative water sources
Which sources, where, how much will they cost, how easy is it to find these sources? Is desalination the answer?
Become more efficient in using the Nile
How is this going to be achieved?
Economic Solutions?
Should payments or compensation be made? Who to? Should the wealthier countries help the situation as north Africa is not a prosperous area?
Creating better relations between the competing countries